Eric's Beijing Diary

There is considerable discussion these days about just how China will actually respond to the referendum scheduled in Taiwan for the 22nd of March. The referendum is a vote on whether the island should seek membership in the United Nations using the name, "Taiwan." On the surface, the referendum seems meaningless, because any attempt by Taiwan to join the United Nations is doomed to failure. Ban Ki-moon has stated emphatically that it would not even be considered. But the symbolism of the vote is powerful, because the referendum addresses the new idea of applying under the name of Taiwan, rather than the "Republic of China," which is the official constitutional name. This is seen as a direct attempt by Chen Shui-bian's government to change the status quo, which China has always regarded as cause for war. Recently, I heard through the grapevine that the Army had put overseas trips to the United States by Army personnel on hold pending the referendum. Why would trips to the United States be put on hold? The United States has clearly stated it's objection to the vote. But the U.S. is also vehemently opposed to a military attack on the island by the mainland. So if China is planning to attack, they may be assuming that this would result in visas to the US being revoked. In other words, a state of war with Taiwan could result in a period of hostility between the U.S. and China.

Personally, I just cannot believe that China would sacrifice the Olympics to attack Taiwan over something that has no power to effect change, and that is the last gasp of a lame duck leader (and a very lame duck, I might add). Ma Ying-jeou will most likely be the next president of Taiwan, and he is from the KMT, which favors reunification with the mainland.