Eric's Beijing Diary

Last year on this date, I said the three most important issues of 2019 would be the South China Sea, the trade war, and human rights.

The South China Sea is still an issue, but it has really been on hold all year, so it is not an immediate issue.

The trade war definitely stayed up front all year. And they are talking about the first phase being ready to sign now, but I am skeptical. It does look like Trump is winning, although winning slowly, but this really needs to be a win-win situation. If one side loses, they both lose. But I guess it must be said that the trade war has not become the disaster some predicted and most feared.

Human rights is still very much an issue because of Xinjiang. There is some talk that the camps may be closing, but I am not confident. But the BBC sattelite photos put a lot of pressure on the Chinese government. Their initial denials became ludicrous and they were forced to develop other rationalizations.

The one I missed, of course, was Hong Kong. Nobody anticipated it. If they had, they never would have introduced that extradition bill. I personally do not see the introduction of the extradition bill as a malicious act. But it was definitely clueless, and points to the perpetual insensitivity of the Hong Kong government.

For those of you who don't follow Hong Kong politics, the Chief Executive in Hong Kong is sorta elected, but in a lopsided way that basically ensures that Beijing is in control. The people who get picked for the job are not Communists per se. But they tend to be pro-Beijing elitists. So far, not one of them has left office without being roundly condemned by the common people. It is not a good situation and not entirely fair either to the common people of Hong Kong, or to the Chief Executive. What I mean is that most of the time, the Chief Executive is actually not a bad administrator. But the ones who get chosen are often viewed as "out of touch." For example, when C.Y. Leung was C.E., he remarked at one time that if democracy were more direct, there would be people voting who only made 1000 (Hong Kong) dollars a month. In other words, he was concerned that minimum wage people would actually have a part in choosing the chief executive. It's the sort of thing that makes you say, "That's what democracy is about, C.Y." I really don't think he meant it maliciously. But it was a stupid thing to say.

But what happened last summer really was the ultimate faux pas for a Hong Kong leader. How Carrie Lamb could have thought people would accept an agreement to extradite Hong Kong citizens to mainland China just boggles the mind. Pandemonium. As I have said before, I do not justify the violence of the young people. But she lit the fuse. And it's not over. That could slowly get better or get much worse. And the involvement of ignorant uninformed American members of Congress does not help.

So I thought I would let you hear from a unique group of young people. Four Hong Kong students at Columbia University share their thoughts. They are not ignoramuses like American members of Congress, but they are also not as one-sided as the demonstrators who have lived all their lives in Hong Kong and tend to be very self-centered in their thinking.

This will be the defining issue at least in the first part of the year. But the trade war is also ongoing because it is not finishing up quickly the way Trump anticipated. I think the South China Sea is probably going to stay in the background for the foreseeable future. Regarding Xinjiang, if China gets those camps closed down very quickly, they may survive this, because most people realize that there were, in fact, jihad Muslims in Xinjiang and something had to be done. But the actions of the government have been way, way too heavy-handed, so it really needs to end now, because the situation is precarious in terms of China's reputation before the watching world. It is not fun to live a world where everybody hates you and your own best citizens are embarrassed to admit that they are from China.

Labels: Hong Kong