Eric's Beijing Diary

Mao: It's better for it to be in your hands. And if you were to send it back to me now, I would not want it, because it's not wantable. There are a huge bunch of counter-revolutionaries there. A hundred years hence, we will want it [gesturing with his hand], and we are going to fight for it.

Kissinger: Not a hundred years.

Mao: [Gesturing with his hand, counting] It is hard to say. Five years, ten, twently, a hundred years. It's hard to say. [Points toward the ceiling] And when I go to heaven to see God, I'll tell him it's better to have Taiwan under the care of the United States now.

Kissinger: He will be very astonished to hear that from the Chairman.

Mao: No, because God blesses you, not us. [waves his hands] because I am a militant warlord, also a communist. That's why he doesn't like me. [Pointing to the three Americans] He likes you and you and you.

Modern Chinese leaders, in contrast, are much more insecure. China today seems burdened with an inferiority complex--forever needing to prove to the world, and even more to herself, that she is a major player on the world stage. Mao had no time for such antics. Building fake islands in the middle of the South China Sea would not appeal to him.

So where do we go from here? There are several possibilities, but let's talk about the impossibilities first, because if we can get them out of the way, the discussion about what is possible will not be burdened with unrealistic options. The following two things are impossible. They can never happen.

1. The KMT retaking the mainland by force and putting all of China (China + Taiwan) under its rule.

2. The Communist Party taking over the island of Taiwan and putting all of China (China + Taiwan) under its rule.

The first impossibility we have already talked about. But I haven't mentioned yet that 70 percent of the people of Taiwan speak Taiwanese Hokkien. These people have never had any interest in taking over the mainland. But they do, of course, have an interest in defending their independence. They have not officially declared independence as a national act, but the individual leaders have. The current leader, of course. And Ma Ying-jeou before her said it very clearly. The only difference between him and Tsai is that she has declared independence from China, and while Ma declared independence as China. But again, practically speaking, those two are the same (since there is no possibility that Taiwan can ever take over the mainland and be the "real China"). Chen Shui-bian, of course, also declared that Taiwan was an independent country, and if I remember correctly, he even used the word "Taiwan" instead of Republic of China. I'm not sure about that part, but I seem to remember that. I don't specifically recall hearing Li Deng-hui proclaim Taiwan's independence, but he certainly believed in it. He was a member of the KMT, but he was a Taiwanese native, and was largely responsible for purging the KMT of old guard (as detailed in another previous post).

So in a defensive struggle, Taiwan would be completely unified. No one in Taiwan believes in "one-China" under the Communist party.

But in an offensive struggle it would be very different. Most of the people would be very opposed to trying to "retake" the mainland. That's before we even start talking about the logistics of it, which are obviously formidable. It's not going to happen.

Now let's talk about the second impossibility--that of China taking over Taiwan by force and bringing all of China under the rule of the Communist party. The following article addresses the logistics of such an effort:

Interesting article. I like it because it shows graphically the difference between China and Taiwan militarily. That's important. But remember, the difference between China and Taiwan militarily is nothing compared to the difference between the United States and North Korea, or between the United States and Vietnam, or between the United States and Iraq, or between the United States and Afghanistan. And the United States was not able to win any of those conflicts. Why? The reason is two-fold. First, it takes much more military force to attack than to defend. The second reason is that victory in conflict requires both military force and the will of the people to fight. The "human" side of war, if you will.

So let's take a look at the human side for a minute. If China attacked Taiwan, Taiwan would fight tooth and nail. Lots of people on both sides would die. I assume that the Americans would get involved to help Taiwan, but they wouldn't need to, as long as they were willing to supply Taiwan with the needed weapons of war. Believe me, when thousands of families throughout the countryside of China started getting their one and only son back in a body bag, there would be a revolt. Many people would be asking, "Why did my son have to die? Taiwan did not attack us. Why did we attack them? There is no reason for this. My son died for nothing." The common people would not support the war effort. Intellectuals in universities may support it, because their blood wouldn't be flowing in the streets. But the common people throughout the country would lose heart. Why? Because in order to have the people with you, you need a legitimate casus belli. It is very hard to be victorious without that, as the Americans have found in Iraq. Now, if Taiwan invaded China first, it might be different, at least for awhile. But if not, China would have no legitimate cause for action, either in the minds of the people, or in the eyes of the watching world. So an attack on Taiwan in these circumstances would be devastating for the current regime in China, both in terms of relationship with the other countries of the world, and in terms of relationship with China's own people. Most people in China are not Communists. But they do like stability. The current regime on the mainland has given them that. But if you take that away, the widespread support the current regime enjoys would disappear. Read history: a military attack that causes many people to die will never have the support of the masses unless you can convince them that you had to do it, and you had to do it now.

So with both of those impossibilities out of the way, where do we go from here? What is the wisest course of action? Can Taiwan and China ever be unified? Can they ever be one country? Yes, of course. But whatever happens, it must be something they both agree to. This is key. Neither side has either the power or the right to force its will on the other. Once we can accept this, they are many possibilities. But they will take time. Why? Because regardless of where you come down on this issue, China and Taiwan are very different. Mao understood this. And if it was true then, it is so much more true now. At the time Mao and Kissinger had that conversation, China and Taiwan had been separated for less than 25 years. Now it has been 70 years. So trying to join them today would be hugely problematic. But there are interesting changes going on in China that could produce a very different dynamic in years to come. For one thing, Christianity is growing very rapidly in China. In 20 years or so, China could be the largest Christian country in the world. In contrast, Taiwan, like America, seems to be moving toward secularism. When I was a child in Japan, no one would have believed that in 2019, China would be well on the way to becoming the largest Christian country in the world. for us in those days, China was like North Korea. Now we commonly say "China" and "Taiwan," but in those days, we often said, "Red China" or "Communist China," and "Free China," and the common expression during the Cold War was "I'd rather be dead then red." Never could we imagine China as a Christian country. Mind you, China is not Korea. Korea is 30% Christian. But Christianity is much more significant in the country of China than it was when the missionaries left after 1949. Christianity is growing. There is a spiritual hunger in China that is pretty impressive for someone like me who grew up in Japan. In Japan, there was great freedom for churches to operate as they wished. But there were no churches. I lived in towns of several hundred thousand people and one church. The countryside of Japan has not changed that much in all these years, but China has changed drastically. In Beijing today there might be 10 or 12 Three-Self Churches. but there are thousands of independent "family churches." I have never been to Taiwan, but data shows that when it comes to Christianity, Taiwan is much more like Japan than China, andChina is becoming more like Korea every day.

The other interesting thing about China is that, in contrast to America, the percentage of Evangelical Christians is very close to the percentage for all Christians. In China, if you are going to be a Christian, there is little reason to be anything but Evangelical. That may not seem important now, but you better believe the effect of that reality in 20 or 30 years will be astounding. If Taiwan were forced into China today, it would be perceived by everyone as a less free country swallowing a free country. But if Christianity continues to grow at the current rate, China will be a freer country than Taiwan in years to come.

I said all that to say that patience is to everyone's advantage. But let's talk about options. What can be done? What are the good options and the not so good?

First of all, "one country two systems" is clearly a non-starter. Why? Well, both political parties in Taiwan oppose it, as expressed recently by the great-grandson of Chiang Kai-shek:

I get the distinct impression from reading this article, that among the younger generation of political leaders, there seems to be a "moving together" of the two perspectives (KMT and DPP). But especially with respect to one China, two systems, they seem to be unified. So why are the people of Taiwan so overwhelmingly opposed to one country, two systems?

Perhaps I can explain this by way of analogy:

Let's suppose that China and Japan were fighting a war. Then let's suppose that the common people begin to hear the rumor that China had surrendered to Japan. They rush to turn on the television or radio, or go to the Internet to see what is happening. Now, imagine that they turn on the radio or something, and hear the announcer trying to reassure the public: "Please don't worry. Japan has promised that we can have one country, two systems."

What do you think? Do you think most people in China would be happy about this? Do you think they would say, "Oh, good. Nothing will change. And it's good for China to be together with Japan. After all, we are all Asians, so we must be related somewhere back there."

No. no way. I think they would be horrified. And picture the scene: At every elementary school, at every middle school, at every university, students would gather around the flagpole and watch the flag of their country coming down for the last time. Why? Because you can have one country, two systems, but you can't have one country, two flags. With tears streaming down their faces, they would sing their national anthem for the last time as they watched the flag slowly beijing lowered so that it could be replaced by the flag of Japan. Then they would have to go back to their classrooms and learn the national anthem of Japan. Why? Because you can have one country, two systems, but you can't have one country, two national anthems. Right now as I am writing this, Beijing is pushing a law in Hong Kong that could put you in prison for three years if you show disrespect for the national anthem of China.

Remember, this analogy is just that, an analogy. It's not true, and it would not happen. Japan is a peaceful country now, and they would not do that kind of thing today. But I share this analogy to make the point that if something like that did happen, it would not be accepted. Nobody would say, "Oh, look! We have a bright new flag with a big red sun in the middle! Isn't it lovely?" Nobody would say that. And nobody would say, "Japan is so kind to allow us to have one country, two systems. We don't even have to learn Japanese. We just have to learn the Japanese national anthem, so we can be loyal to our new mother country." Nobody would feel that way. There would be widespread unrest. Probably war in the streets. The mass of people would not be politely singing the Japanese national anthem. They would be singing, "Arise, ye who refuse to be slaves!" And they would be singing it with gusto.

Sometimes Chinese people puzzle themselves over why the Taiwanese do not like the "one country, two sytems" idea. But in fact, Chinese people themselves would never accept such a thing if it were imposed on them by another power.

In western culture, we have what is called the "Golden Rule:"

Do unto others as you would have them to unto you.

Don't do to others what you don't want them to do to you.

So you see, a free people will always resist one country, two systems. In the interview I mentioned earlier, the interviewer, Steve Chao, who is ethnic Chinese, but very North American in his thinking (he's from Canada), seemed to be consumed with the idea that Taiwan people are watching Hong Kong and they see how one country, two systems is going, and they don't like it, so they decided not to accept it for Taiwan. I suppose this may be true to a certain extent, but Mr. Chao doesn't seem to realize that the KMT has always opposed one China, two systems as a matter of principle, for reasons that have little or nothing to do with Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a colony. Furthermore, there is a significant part of the government in Hong Kong (called the "pro-Beijing camp") that likes the one country, two systems idea. In other words, not everybody agrees that one country, two systems is not going well. I don't want to get sidetracked into talking about Hong Kong right now, because I plan to address that issue in a future post, but it's not the same, as Ma Ying-jeou articulates very effectively in the interview.

So what to do? I think there is a solution that can avoid the problems we have talked about. I don't know the Chinese name for it, but in America we use a Latin expression: status quo. It means "leave things the way they are for now."

What would be the advantage of this approach?

• Nobody dies. There would be no war. Under the 1992 Consensus, each side is allowed to believe that they are the "real China." As long as Taiwan continues to maintain that, they cannot be invaded. Right now, China has many missiles pointed at Taiwan. Missiles are indiscriminate. They don't just kill soldiers. If just one of those missiles were fired at a city like Taipei, many innocent people could die. We don't want that. As Xi-Jinping said in his speech, "Chinese don't fight Chinese."
• Trade across the Taiwan Strait would continue. This is very important for both sides of the strait.
• Taiwanese businessmen could continue to work in China. I heard somewhere that there are a million Taiwanese businessmen in China. I don't have any idea if they number is really that high, but there are a lot of them. They bring a lot of expertise to China, and a lot of income to Taiwan.
• Student exchanges could continue. Chinese students could continue to study in Taiwan, and Taiwanese students could continue to study in China. These exchanges are so important! They keep young people from both China and Taiwan communicating with each other. Chinese students tend to be openhearted and relational. I have never been to Taiwan, but if Taiwanese students are even half as openhearted as Chinese students, these student exchanges have huge possibilities. As communication continues, the people of China and Taiwan in the next generation would grow together more and more.
• Travel. Tourism is good for both sides of the Taiwan Strait. And as more and more people travel both ways, I believe that understanding between them will increase. When I first came to China, it was very rare to find Chinese people who had been to Taiwan. That has really changed and needs to change more.
• Discussions about this problem could continue peacefully. I believe these discussions are very important. I do believe Taiwan has a right to insist that discussions are not done under the threat of force. Nobody wants to negotiate with the cold steel of a gun barrel on his temple. But there should be negotiation and dialogue.
• The Americans would stay out of it. Sometimes I hear people in China talking about how America wants to control the Taiwan situation for their own purposes. I believe that is a misunderstanding. The Americans actually don't care that much about what happens in Asia. But they are desperately afraid of a land war in Asia. This is partly because of their experience in Korea, but also because of their experience in Vietnam. They did not win either one of those conflicts. Korea was a standoff, but Vietnam was a bitter defeat, with the Americans literally escaping in helicopters from the roof of the embassy in Hanoi. So whenever China talks aggressively toward Taiwan, the Americans become very concerned and sell lots of weapons to Taiwan. But when China talks peacefully toward Taiwan, the Americans lose interest. They have so many other things to worry about.
• Perhaps more important than anything else, the respect for Chinese people as a peaceful people would increase. When the people of the world hear talk of war between China and Taiwan, they begin to wonder if the Chinese, as a people, are peaceful, or addicted to violent conflict. The status quo would do much to put these fears to rest.

I realize that the status quo is not a permanent solution. But I think it is by far the best option for Taiwan's current circumstance. Patience is a virtue that will yield rich fruit in the relations between China and Taiwan, and among all Chinese people throughout the world, and also the relationship between Chinese people and the people of other nations. In the future, I want to brainstorm some more about what possible solutions may be available that might be more long-term, and less temporary than the status quo idea. For example, it is clearly impossible for Taiwan to take over the mainland. But what if China invited Taiwan to take over and change the name of China back to "Republic if China?" I don't want to go there right now, because that's just a wild idea that floated through my brain, and I haven't had time to process it yet. But all who love China (both China and Taiwan) must never give up trying to find a peaceful solution to this problem.

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Labels: Japan, Taiwan